How to Forecast Stock for Black Friday Without Overordering

Black Friday inventory is a bit like cooking for a party: make too little, and your guests end up restless and hungry; make too much, and you’ve got leftovers for weeks. Fortunately, there’s a lot you can do to avoid this type of awkward situation. This year, Black Friday falls on November 27, and if last year is anything to go by, it’s going to be a big one. In 2025, Mastercard SpendingPulse data showed that Black Friday retail sales rose 4.1% year over year, and it’s not just an online event: in-store sales grew too, even as online spending jumped by double digits.

With that many people out shopping, getting your inventory right really matters. If you order too little, you could sell out by the afternoon and watch your potential customers walk away. But if you order too much, you’ll start January stuck with a stockroom full of discounted products.

Don’t be tempted to shrug this off and rely on guesstimates alone. Getting the balance wrong is more common, and more costly, than you might think; out-of-stocks and overstocks together cost retailers around 6.5% of global sales in 2025. But there’s good news too. With a bit of planning, the right data (and this blog), you can get much closer to the sweet spot.

A little bit of Black Friday history

To start us off, let’s have a little history lesson. The day after Thanksgiving has long marked the start of holiday shopping in the US, with department store parades officially marking the festive season. But where does the name Black Friday come from? By the early 1960s, the day after Thanksgiving brought huge crowds into Philadelphia to start their holiday shopping, along with tourists in town for the big Army–Navy football game. For the police, it meant packed streets and long shifts, so they nicknamed it Black Friday. Retailers preferred a happier spin, and the story stuck that it was the day their books finally went into the black.

Today, it’s one of the biggest shopping events of the year, and it’s grown well beyond a single day, with many retailers running deals for a week or more, followed by Cyber Monday.

Why Black Friday is so hard to forecast

For most of the year, your sales probably follow a fairly reliable rhythm, but Black Friday tends to throw a wrench in the works. It’s not just that more people are shopping; it’s the price drops, with the holidays right around the corner, so shoppers expect a lot more than a usual sale. Here’s what makes Black Friday tricky to plan for:

• Demand isn’t spread evenly: The products you discount will usually see the biggest jump, while full-price items can actually sell less, as shoppers hold out for a deal.
• The rush lasts longer than a day: With lots of retailers launching deals early in November, your sales could be spread across a week or more, so you’ll need enough inventory to last the whole period, not just Friday.
• Some sales are borrowed from the holidays: Many shoppers use Black Friday to get their gift shopping done early, which can mean a quieter few weeks in December. Ordering for Black Friday as if it’s extra demand on top of the holidays is an easy way to overstock.
• Restocking takes time: Your suppliers are busy too, so if you sell out, you might not be able to get more before the deals end.

This is why just doubling your usual order isn’t going to cut it. What’s likely to happen is that you’ll run out of the things everyone wants and be stuck with piles of the things they don’t. Instead, it’s much better to think about each product on its own: how well has it sold before, how good is the deal, and how fast can you get more if it flies off the shelves? So don’t go buying extra of everything just willy-nilly.

1. Start with last year’s sales data

Before you do anything else, you’ve got to do a bit of research. Your best guide to this Black Friday is the last one, so look back at the weeks around Black Friday last year and ask yourself:

• What sold out, or came close? These are the products you probably underordered.
• What barely moved, even with a discount? These are the ones to be careful with this time.
• When did sales peak? Was it the day itself, the weekend, or the whole week? This helps you time deliveries.
• How much did customers spend per visit? Average transaction value often rises on Black Friday, which tells you how much shoppers were willing to buy at once.

If you use Epos Now, you can pull all of this from your sales reports in a few clicks. Our guide to the 8 most useful reports you can run in Epos Now shows you where to find your best sellers, hourly sales trends, and more.

If you’ve got no data from last year, look at your busiest periods this year instead, like the summer sales or a holiday weekend like Labor Day, to see how your customers behave when demand spikes. Every business will have a different experience when it comes to Black Friday, so your own sales history will always be a better guide than industry averages or what the store next door is doing.

2. Turn your data into a forecast

Once you have last year’s figures, the easiest way to build your forecast is to take it one product at a time:

1. Start with last year’s sales: how many of that product did you sell over the Black Friday period?
2. Adjust for what’s changed: a bigger discount, a new trend, or more marketing could all push demand up, while a smaller deal could bring it down.
3. Take off what you’ve already got: subtract the inventory you already have on hand.

Say you sold 40 of a particular sweater over Black Friday last year, and this time you’re offering a bigger discount, so you’re expecting around 20% more interest. That would bring your forecast to about 48, and since you’ve already got 15 in stock, you’d only need to order around 33.

It won’t be perfect, but it’s far more reliable than going on gut feeling, and it stops you from adding the same increase to every product.

3. Focus on the products that matter most

As a rule of thumb, a lot of your Black Friday sales will probably come down to just a few products, so that’s where most of your planning time should go. It’s unlikely that Black Friday will affect each of your products equally, so it can help to sort your inventory into three rough groups:

• Your star products: the ones you’re really pushing this year. Take your time with these, and order a few extra so you’re not left with empty shelves halfway through the day.
• Your steady sellers: the reliable products that sell all year round. They’ll probably get a bit of a boost, so a small top-up on your usual order should do the trick.
• Everything else: if something doesn’t normally do much on Black Friday, a discount probably won’t change that, so there’s no need to stock up.

If you want to dig a bit deeper, our guide to inventory forecasting has a few more methods you can try.

4. Check what you already have

This one might sound obvious, but your forecast is only ever as good as the inventory figures you’re working from. If your system says you’ve got 20 of something, but there are really only 12 on the shelf, you’ll end up ordering too little without even realizing. That’s why it’s worth doing a proper inventory count in early November, so you know exactly where you’re starting from. It might feel like a chore, but it pays off: in one 2025 study of grocery stores, inventory checks boosted overall sales by 11%.

5. Talk to your suppliers early

Here’s something you can’t forget: you’re not the only one gearing up for Black Friday! Your suppliers are juggling orders from every other business too, and the last thing you want is to find out your bestseller is out of stock at the warehouse in mid-November. Get your orders in early, and while you’re at it, ask about lead times, minimum order quantities, and whether you can top up quickly if something sells faster than you expected.

If you can, avoid ordering everything upfront. A smaller first order with the option to reorder quickly means you’re not betting all your cash on your forecast being perfect. For more on setting reorder points, take a look at our guide to inventory control.

6. Track inventory in real time on the day

If there’s one certainty when it comes to Black Friday sales, it’s that no matter how carefully you plan, it always has a few surprises up its sleeve. That product you weren’t sure about might suddenly be the one everyone’s after, so it pays to keep a close eye on your inventory as the day goes on. If you can see what’s flying off the shelves in real time, you can reorder before it’s too late, move your bestsellers somewhere more eye-catching, or tweak your deals while there’s still time to make the most of them. Basically, the name of the game is to stay flexible, alert, and reactive when it comes to stocking.

With an Epos Now POS system, your inventory levels update every time you make a sale, and low-stock alerts give you a nudge when it’s time to reorder, so you’re never caught off guard. Selling online as well? Inventory management software keeps your stock in sync across every location and channel, so you’ll never end up selling the same item twice.

7. Have a plan for leftover inventory

Even if you plan everything perfectly, there’s a good chance you’ll have a few items left over once the deals are done, and that’s completely normal. A few ideas to help them move:

• Ask your supplier about returns. Some suppliers will take back unsold inventory, especially if you agree to it before you order, so it’s worth asking upfront.
• Turn them into gift sets. Leftovers often work well bundled together as ready-made holiday gifts, which can sell at full price rather than at a discount.
• Use them as a thank-you. Adding a slow seller as a gift with bigger purchases can help clear inventory while giving customers a reason to spend a little more.
• Spot them early. A non-selling stock report in your POS system shows you exactly what isn’t moving, so you can act in early December rather than waiting until January.

8. Review your results afterward

Once the dust has settled and you’ve had a well-earned cup of coffee, look back at how it all went. Which products sold out in a flash, and which are still sitting in the stockroom looking a bit sorry for themselves? Your Epos Now reports can do the heavy lifting here, showing your top sellers and flagging anything that didn’t move, so you’ll be in a great position when next November comes around. For more tips, take a look at our guide to retail inventory management.

Your inventory done right this Black Friday

Forecasting inventory for Black Friday doesn’t have to be a guessing game. Look at what sold last year, think about what’s different this time, and give your best sellers the most attention. Then, once the sale starts, keep a close eye on things as it unfolds. Get that right, and you’ll have what your customers want without a stockroom full of leftovers come January.