UK restaurant market to grow +59% in 2022 to £17.8bn
The UK restaurant market is set to recover to 94% of its 2019 value in 2022, as stated by the new Lumina Intelligence UK Restaurant Market Report 2021/22.
The report, which surveyed 78,000 of the Lumina Intelligence's Eating & Drinking Out Panel, set out to investigate consumer attitudes and intentions towards eating out and their spending patterns in restaurants.
Its findings indicate that the UK restaurant market grew 25.9% or £2.3bn in 2021 to a total value of £11.2bn and, in 2022, the report predicts year-on-year growth of +59.4% or £6.6bn to a value of £17.8bn.
Restaurant penetration was 69% higher in December 2021 than in December 2020, peaking in September with one in ten consumers having a restaurant occasion each week.
Restaurant penetration fell towards the end of 2021 with the spread of Omicron impacting consumer risk aversion.
The report also found that consumers are eating out in independent restaurants less frequently than branded restaurants, but when they do, they spend more. The average spend for a consumer eating at an independent restaurant is £25.14, compared to £21.59 for a consumer eating at a branded restaurant.
Blonnie Whist, Insight Director at Lumina Intelligence, said, "Unrestricted trading throughout 2022 is forecast to underpin recovery in turnover across the market. Falling case numbers will boost virus conscious consumer confidence in socialising out of home. However, despite most wanting to move on from pandemic, it is the pandemic-led trends that will continue to provide the biggest growth opportunities. Demand for delivery shows no sign of waning, menus are set to remain streamlined to manage rising costs, digital ordering and payment solutions will increase speed and satisfactions, and outdoor dining will be a key development opportunity."
"Operators will have to be savvy, with costs rising impacting both consumer and operator spend. Increases in NLW, utility costs, VAT, the end of the rent mortarium and the introduction of mandatory calorie labelling on menus will all increase expenses for suppliers and operators. Increases in bills and National Insurance are expected to see consumers tighten purse strings. Restaurants will be in direct competition with pubs, QSR, delivery and grocery channels for spend."